The curious case of Kevin Gausman

In every way, shape, and form, Kevin Gausman is the Blue Jays' ace.

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For a staff that entered the season with more questions than answers, one thing was for sure. Kevin Gausman was the guy you can rely on. Through 15 starts, he boasts a 6-3 record, with an ERA of 3.01, and 121 strikeouts (bouncing back-and-forth with Spencer Strider for the league lead). As great as those overall numbers are, there are some underlying ‘red flags’ that the Jays may want to consider as the trade deadline approaches.

Often, a 2023 Gausman start consists of length, many strikeouts, and a fairly clean slate of runs and walks. Occasionally however, he does get hit hard (see starts @Houston, @Boston, vs Minnesota). So, what do those starts have in common you ask? Gausman pitched on ‘normal (five day)’ rest.

Now, I get it. How can I confidentially say Gausman struggles pitching on normal rest based on three starts? Let’s look at his splits.

This season, Gausman has pitched 49 innings on five days rest, and 41 and 2/3 innings on six days rest. Here’s a chart to show how he performs on average during those games.

	IP	H	ER	BB	K	WHIP
5 DAYS	5 2/3	6	3	2.1	6.2	1.19
6 DAYS	6 2/3	4.5	0.83	0.83	11	1.01

At first glance, those normal rest starts aren’t that bad. But those extra rest starts are clearly God like, and definitely Cy Young-caliber.

These numbers aren’t completely surprising when you consider who Gausman is. A veteran of 11 big league seasons, he averages a touch over 100 pitches per start. That’s pretty common for a high strikeout pitcher, but does tax your arm out.

Managing these extra days of rest is a lot easier said than done. The Jays only have 11 off days (plus the all-star break) throughout the remaining 3.5 months of the season. The team is already struggling with little to no starting pitching depth in AAA. Alek Manoah trying to find himself again doesn’t help either.

So what can the Blue Jays do? There’ll certainly be some starters available at the deadline. I can’t envision the acquisition of an elite arm, but maybe a depth move (see Robbie Ray and Ross Stripling trades of 2020). They do have Hyun-jin Ryu returning sometime in July, but it’s impossible to know what you’re going to get from a veteran returning from Tommy John.

Either way, you know what you’re going to get when Kevin Gausman toes the rubber. The Blue Jays are facing many problems at the moment, but one thing they should look to do is find their ace some extra rest days.