Looking back at the past five No. 1 MLB draft picks

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The month of June means a lot for the baseball world. Contenders and pretenders are starting to separate from the pack, and trends are becoming more and more real (look away Blue Jays fans). In about a month’s time, many young ball players will realize their dreams, when the 2023 MLB Draft gets underway.

With draft preparation in full swing (pun very much intended), mock drafts and top rankings lists are everywhere. The potential for boom/bust picks in the MLB draft differs so much when you compare it to other professional sports leagues. With a 1st overall pick, you could be drafting a player that won’t make an impact on your roster for many years. Not only is that ok, but it’s fairly common.

Before the Pittsburgh Pirates make the first selection, I thought it would be fun to look back at the past five 1st overall picks and see where their careers are at. We are 1st overall media after all…

2022 – Jackson Holliday

The Baltimore Orioles had the top pick in 2022, and used it to select Jackson Holliday. Jackson is viewed as a five tool shortstop prospect, and of course is the son of former MLB great Matt Holliday. Quickly after getting the call, he signed his first professional contract which included an 8.19 million dollar bonus, the highest ever for a high school player. During his debut season, Jackson reached low A ball. Currently playing his baseball in high A, he has made significant improvements during his first offseason, adding additional strength and speed to an already elite set of skills. Projecting to reach the MLB in 2024, Jackson joins an elite group of young players in Baltimore. Look out for those O’s as they should be a force for many years to come.

2021 – Henry Davis

Just like this year, the Pittsburgh Pirates held the top selection in the 2021 draft. They used that pick to select the top catching prospect, Henry Davis. Known as the best bat in the draft, scouts had concerns about his long term future as a catcher in the majors. Henry has an above average arm, but his receiving was always considered questionable. He has risen through the rankings over the past 2 seasons, currently hitting for both average and power in AA. Still primarily working as a catcher, Henry has had some starts in RF, acting as a contingency plan in case the Pirates want to make the switch. Projecting to make the majors in 2024, we may see Henry make the jump earlier if his glove continues to improve.

2020 – Spencer Torkelson

The 2020 baseball season seems like a fever dream at this point. Late start, a shortened season, and of course, those 7 inning double headers. The Detroit Tigers held the 1st overall pick that year, and used it on Spencer Torkelson. The Tigers were full of young pitching prospects at that time, and needed some bats to compliment them. Torkelson was known for his power and athleticism in college, which was nicely complimented by his plate discipline. It’s fairly rare to see a power hitter walk more than strike out. He got the call to the majors last season, and has been mostly an everyday player since then. In only his 1st full big league season, Torkelson hasn’t been able to reproduce that at the highest level. Even though he sports below average numbers at the plate, Torkelson has looked like more of a complete player this year, and should continue to improve on a young Tigers team.

2019 - Adley Rutschman

The Baltimore Orioles were picking first in 2019, and this was a good year to be bad. They took catcher Adley Rutschman, who was viewed as not only the top prospect in the draft, but a truly franchise changing player. Flash forward to now, and he has been all of that and then some. If it wasn’t for an injury, Rutschman would’ve been starting open day for the Orioles. Once healthy, he got the call and has played almost every game since. If it wasn’t for Julio Rodriquez’s crazy season in ‘22, Rutschman would’ve been the rookie of the year. He helped change the outlook of the Orioles from basement dwellers to playoff contenders. His above average work from both the batter’s box and behind the plate should not only lead to a postseason run, but a first all-star appearance too.

2018 – Casey Mize

The Detroit Tigers held the top selection in 2018 (unknown to them at the time to be their 2nd in 3 years), and used that pick on Casey Mize. Mize was the top rated prospect, and boasted what scouts called an unhittable splitter. He lit up the minors in both 2018 and 2019 before getting the call for a few starts in 2020. After a decent 30 start campaign in 2021, where he sported a 3.71 ERA and 118 strikeouts, Mize’s biggest issue has been his health. His inability to stay on the baseball field the past 2 seasons has been highlighted by Tommy John surgery, and a back surgery shortly thereafter. We likely won’t see Mize in 2023, so it’ll be interesting to see how these injuries have stunted his development come 2024.

What we’ve learned from the past 5 drafts is that sometimes it works out amazing, sometimes it doesn’t, and sometimes, it’s too early to tell. So yes, what we’ve truly learned is nothing. The draft itself is a gamble, and will always leave teams with questions. How will the Pirates answer that question this year? I guess we’ll have to wait and find out.